The final numbers tell one part of the story, but fantasy football is a game of volume. Knowing any given week who is going to get the looks, and in what situations those looks are coming, can help you make important lineup decisions – touches and targets on a weekly basis play as big a role as the name on the back of the jersey. With that in mind let’s take a look back at workloads from this past weekend and start thinking forward to who may find themselves in a more favorable situation in Week 11. This post takes a look at Running Backs; we addressed the touches and targets for Wide Receivers and Tight Ends in a previous article.
- Andre Brown had 30(!) carries in his season debut for the Giants,
as coach Tom Coughlin wisely eased him back into the lineup.With Peyton Hillis pushed into a clear reserve role and David Wilson being shut down, we’re going to see this type of work from Brown for here on out. It probably won’t be 31 touches a week mind you, but he roughly tripled Hillis’ snap count and had six times as many opportunities (after the aspiring CIA agent lost a fumble) and that type of distribution should be expected moving forward. A handful of change of pace carries given away, but 20 touches a week seems to be a lock for Brown moving forward. I mentioned in our weekly review broadcast that I’d give serious consideration to a Brown for any-Giants-WR trade right now and that holds. Brown rushed 14 times for 65 yards in the first half, before understandably wearing down a bit in the second half with 16 carries for 50 yards. Over time, his conditioning will improve. He rushed for over five yards a carry last season.
Darren Sproles, rocking the awful ‘full black’ Saints uniform returned to relevance in a big way against Dallas (Photo: Stacy Revere/Getty Images)
- If you lined up behind Drew Brees on Sunday Night Football, you had an awesome game. The end. Each back scored and Darren Sproles’ 88 total yards were the fewest that he, Pierre Thomas and Mark Ingram registered. Everyone was good, the end. A couple of notes, though… Sproles played just 34.5% of New Orleans’ snaps this week so it isn’t as if workload questions go away. We can’t forget them just because he had a nice game, but, he’s still back in the circle of trust for the time being. Pierre Thomas found a way to contribute seven catches, despite Sproles strong game and seven catches/targets of his own, which is noteworthy in PPR settings in particular. Thomas drew the start, played the most snaps, and his 24 touches topped Sproles (12) and Ingram (16).
- You won’t hear any Alfred Morris owners fretting about his workload this week. He had 26 carries and heavily out-touched Roy Helu (5) despite the latter playing 33 snaps relative to 48 for Morris. Darrel Young had a carry but that was it, so no concerns about him being a weekly goalline vulture.
- Adrian Peterson had one of his less effective nights running the football on a yards per carry basis despite taking on a less than stellar run defense, however he found the endzone twice and had enough volume to make his line useful. With 20 carries this week he now was 45 in his last two games, after being granted just 36 in the three games prior.
- Seattle’s win over Atlanta got out of hand early, meaning that Robert Turbin played significant snaps (24 to Marshawn Lynch’s 35) and the Seahawks still found a way to get Lynch plenty of work. He had 27 touches on those 35 snaps and 161 total yards. Lynch’s 51 missed tackles against this season lead the league by a wide margin. It is worth noting, that while Christine Michael is still very much the 3rd man on the pecking order, he had eight carries on nine snaps and gained a far-more-productive 36 yards than Robert Turbin who had eight yards on eight touches.
- This is numbers only speak (I haven’t seen the tape), but it’s safe to say that my preseason darling Steven Jackson is fried. It took him 12 touches (three receptions) to gain 20 yards while both Jason Snelling and Jacquizz Rodgers (seven pass targets, five receptions) gained 59 total yards on eight touches. Jackson had a reasonable game last week, but he’s never going to live up to expectations. He’s a matchup play only at this point, and with Atlanta looking destined to trail most games there won’t be a ton of good matchups left.
- C.J. Spiller came crashing down to earth this week, after a solid week 9. The Bills’ coaching staff raved about wanting to get him more involved, yet, he played half the snaps of Fred Jackson and had just 11 touches. Jackson had 62 total yards on 16 touches. While the Bills claim this isn’t injury related (and that fact is even more troubling, frankly) Buffalo has a bye coming in Week 12, so the hope is that a week off will get him right in time for the stretch run if he does have any lingering ailments.
- While both other Pittsburgh backs averaged over four yards per tote, Le’Veon Bell delivered a performance we’re considering naming after him with 22 carries for 57 yards. He saved his fantasy day with three catches for 39 yards and by scoring a rushing touchdown, though. Remember folks: volume is everything. 25 touches is a little higher than his average but somewhere in the 20 range is still a reasonable projection and he gets all the goal line goods.
- It wasn’t quite his 179 total yard performance from Week 4 but Reggie Bush ran well this week. He’s owned the Bears this season, posting 105 rushing yards on 14 attempts and adding three catches. Joique Bell saw 10 rushing attempts as well, and he remains one of the more frequently used secondary options for the division leading Lions.
- Matt Forte had 117 total yards the last time these teams met and hadn’t been held under 90 on the season, so naturally he posted just 49 yards on 21 touches. Still, Michael Bush’s lone carry was limited to a failed 4th down opportunity so the backfield continues to belong to Forte; we’ll excuse the one week blip on the scoring radar.
- Rams RB Zac Stacy picked up 28 touches in a clock-killing kind of game for St. Louis, but, he wasn’t particularly effective gaining just 68 total yards – he did save his week with a TD though. With a long run (56 yards) on eight touches Benny Cunningham had a productive day. While it isn’t noteworthy in standard formats, it does pose the question as to whether or not the team will rush Daryl Richardson back.
- In a game where he continued to be Trent Richardson and while the Colts lost by 30 points, TRich was inexplicably on the field for 39 snaps compared to 28 for Donald Brown. Credit Richardson, whose three receptions helped him post 35 yards on eight touches, but Brown was the more effective back by far catching all five of his targets for 64 yards and a score. The Colts don’t see Brown as a starting RB and they’re probably right – he’s insufficiently durable – but there should be no reason that this is anything more than a 50/50 timeshare moving forward, severely capping Richardson’s limited value.
- Maurice Jones-Drew continues to be the focal point of the Jaguars offense with 25 touches for the second consecutive game, and while he tallied just 41 rushing yards on his 21 carries, he’s a viable option as long as he’s getting work. Denard Robinson, naturally after being named the Jaguars secondary RB, played in just four snaps (while Jordan Todman had nine). He did carry the ball on all four snaps, but the result wasn’t pretty. Given the way the team is feeding MJD it isn’t likely that there is a sustainable FLEX back on the roster so don’t spend a lot of time fretting about it until it becomes apparent that the team wants to give Robinson a thorough look for next season.
- With five catches on seven targets for 46 yards Chris Johnson would have saved his fantasy day if not for a lost fumble, but, 76 total yards on 17 touches after a big Week 9 was hardly what owners bargained for. The Titans remain a work in progress so you’ll get weeks like this, but, with CJ remaining capable of breaking off a big one there are probably a few more Week 9 like performances left in him this season. Johnson played 3:1 in terms of snaps over Shonn Greene, the same ratio as last week, so the second option is not much of a threat. Greene did have twelve touches, though, and maintains relevance as a deep FLEX play. For what it’s worth,
- DeAngelo Williams drew the start and scored the touchdown (on a very well designed play and a nice rush from 27 yards out) but it should be noted that he played the fewest snaps of any Panther back and Jonathan Stewart had more carries (13-8). While the TD is nice Williams can’t be ranked as an RB2 with just eight totes and 20 snaps.
- In a game where San Francisco simply couldn’t throw the ball to save their lives (in part due to Vernon Davis’ departure) Frank Gore had a solid day with 103 total yards on 18 touches. San Fran ran just 57 plays of offense, so, the 18 opportunities represents a pretty significant days work for Gore. No one else in the backfield was relevant but it was LaMichael James, not Anthony Dixon, who earned 3rd RB duties.
- Dennis Johnson didn’t run particularly well in his limited opportunities to spell Ben Tate but he’s a guy that should be on your radar with the news that Arian Foster is going to be shut down for the duration. Tate had 15 carries for 56 yards, along with three catches, while Johnson had four touches for 21.
- Andre Ellington outgained Rashard Mendenhall by 22 yards on one fewer touch (14-13) while playing three more snaps than the veteran. Mendenhall lost another fumble in Week 10 which almost assuredly affects coach Bruce Arians’ willingness to trust him moving forward, but, it’s worth noting that despite all of the 20 touch bluster Ellington still had fewer opportunities than Mendenhall and it appears that the talk was just that.
- With a season high eight catches on eight targets Knowshon Moreno to go with 15 carries had another monster PPR day, finishing over 100 total yards for the fourth time in five games. Montee Ball chipped in five carries while Ronnie Hillman hasn’t been heard from in almost a month.
- A week after a workload bordering on criminal, Ryan Mathews picked up 14 touches, 61 yards and a touchdown for San Diego. Danny Woodhead was targeted heavily in the redzone passing game but had just 10 touches and 44 yards, posting a productive fantasy line thanks to a touchdown. Woodhead did see a handful more snaps than Mathews but it was surprising that the number was close to 50/50 given the way the game played out. Had Mathews not missed time in the first quarter with an injury, he’d have likely picked up five or so more carries (as Ronnie Brown had nine on the day) and won the snap battle. Again, a shock after last week against Washington. Mathews has carried for an average of more than four yards in every game since Week 6 and has scored three TDs during that span.
- Giovani Bernard more than doubled BenJarvus Green-Ellis’ snap count and was a PPR monster despite losing 11 yards on his final reception – one for which he is being skewered. While I understand where people are coming from he simply wasn’t going to get the first down plowing ahead, either. With eight catches on eight targets to go with 14 carries Bernard topped 20 touches for just the second time this season. This was largely due to gameflow and the fact that the Bengals found themselves behind early. He’s just two weeks removed from a six touch outing against the Jets so let’s not go all-in and expect 20 from week to week. The 13-16 range is more reasonable.
- Say what you want about Baltimore’s offensive line – and they’ve been bad – but I’m putting the blame for Ray Rice’s rough season squarely on the RB’s shoulders. A bad line can cause significant problems of course, but you’ve still got to do a little better than a yard and a half a pop. This week Rice carried for just that with 18 totes for 30 yards. He added six catches on six targets and was a key contributor on the game winning drive but that counts for nothing in fantasy. I’m shocked to see Rice, who Pro Football Focus grades as their worst overall running back this season, getting 24 touches in a game where he was basically averaging his body length per carry. The coaching staff seems shocked too, as for the first time this year they’re saying that they’ll ride the hot hand at RB. Bernard Pierce hasn’t been much better, but, with workload concerns starting to set in what little remaining fantasy value Rice had is starting to dissipate. They have a soft matchup this week, but, I can’t advise starting Rice in any format.
- With 16 of his 25 carries coming in the second half LeSean McCoy was a clock killing monster for the Eagles. If Foles and the passing game can keep things moving well, he’ll get those opportunities on a regular basis which will be extremely helpful in padding his stats. The 156 total yards on 26 touches is one of McCoy’s strongest outings with Foles under center and bodes well moving forward.
- Eddie Lacy finished the day with a valiant 84 total yards on 26 touches but his string of consecutive 100 yard outings came to a stop at four games. The workload is going to continue to be there but Lacy owners will need to temper expectations with Scott Tolzein under center, the pass game isn’t going to get Aaron Rodgers level respect, and thus it will be harder to run.
- With Darren McFadden out Rashad Jennings gave his owners 100 total yards for the second consecutive week. Marcel Reece had no carries and just three touches on the day while Jennings had 22 total opportunities and was on the field for all but two of Oakland’s offensive snaps. Should DMC’s injury linger, he’s clearly in for the bulk of the rushing work.
- We can’t fault the Cowboys this week for turning away from the run, given the way the game played out, but it’s a shame that they were forced to as DeMarco Murray was having his way with the Saints. Murray had 80 yards and a score on 11 first half carries and just five for nine in the second.
- In our broadcast leading up to the Monday night game I projected an ugly day for the Dolphins running the ball, but, I don’t think that anyone saw an effort quite this putrid coming. The team gave Lamar Miller and Daniel Thomas 11 carries, and they combined for 0 yards. Not every game will be this bad, but, it’s worth noting that this is their first game without both Richie Incognito and Jonathan Martin. Eventually, the unit gels a bit and Miller retains some value but it won’t be easy for the rest of the season.
- Tampa Bay lost two running backs on Monday, one when Doug Martin was officially placed on the IR and one when Mike James – who had been running hard in relief of Martin and in particular on Monday night – broke his ankle. Brian Leonard, already slated as the backup and coming off a game where he picked up nine touches while spelling James, played in 48 snaps and picked up 22 touches. Bobby Rainey, however, gave the team their only truly electric play of the night with a 31 yard rush on the go ahead drive capped with his own one yard touchdown. He played 11 snaps and had nine touches. It’s hard to tell from the numbers how it will shake out from here, obviously Leonard had more work this week and presumably has the edge, but Rainey didn’t look awful during his time in Cleveland early this season and could give the team a spark. Greg Schiano suggests they’ll ham and egg the two players which means, I guess, that we should expect a timeshare.
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