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NFL Touches and Targets Week 10: NFC Edition

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With another week’s worth of data available for review the NFL continues to be an interesting place. Week 9 gave us many noteworthy items including the target distribution in Philadelphia with Mark Sanchez under Center, some items of interest in Denver’s backfield (and other time share situations around the league) and more… with that, onto the Touches and Targets Week 10 review.

[Check the AFC Edition]

Remember: we’re using ProFootballFocus’ ‘thrown at’ data which takes a more reasonable assessment of balls thrown in a receiver’s direction, so, you may notice some slight discrepancy from box scores.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Philadelphia Eagles

Darren Sproles (10 snaps, one carry for a TD, three targets and a reception) was involved just enough to irk LeSean McCoy owners. He was used less than Chris Polk though, who played more snaps (13) and had more touches (five carries), though. Sproles’ play making ability – don’t forget he scored on another punt return this week – is enough to warrant his use as a FLEX play but the floor is low – if he’s tackled on that TD, you’re looking at a 2 fantasy point night outside of the punt return. Two ‘ifs’? Sure… but, the point is that it’s hard to make hay on two touches. The feature back, meanwhile, followed his two best outings of the season with a real clunker against what we deemed a soft run defense coming in. Carolina did a nice job closing the holes in the run game, but McCoy certainly didn’t find what wasn’t there either – he finished with 12 carries for 19 yards and had two awful drops on his three pass targets. I continue to like him with Mark Sanchez running the offense, though. The line is healthy, Sanchez sells the play action/read option, and McCoy was the most talented back in the league last season… there is usefulness here, fear not.

Jordan Matthews was Philadelphia's most targeted pass catcher in Mark Sanchez's debut (Photo: Bill Streicher/Reuters)

Jordan Matthews was Philadelphia’s most targeted pass catcher in Mark Sanchez’s debut (Photo: Bill Streicher/Reuters)

This won’t be the first space you’ve read that Jordan Matthews’ budding relationship with Mark Sanchez bodes well for his fantasy value, but, I’ll share the note and point out that where there is smoke, there is fire. We discussed this in detail on our Week 10 review broadcast. Matthews has flashed big play ability already this season and exploded against the Panthers on Monday night. His nine targets produced seven receptions, 138 yards and two scores and were two clear of any other Eagle, including Jeremy Maclin who had led the team in looks in every game but one this season coming in. As long as Sanchez keeps looking his way, Matthews will be a very useful commodity. Fear not, Maclin is too. His seven looks were plenty, it’s just that the damage was done by Matthews this week. You’d have liked to have seen a better result from him in his first full week with Sanchez, but, he remains a WR1 with the new QB situation. Riley Cooper is off the radar, though. For a position with a true switch in player of interest status, take a look at TE where Brent Celek was targeted six times and Zach Ertz saw just two. Celek appeared to have injured his ankle late in the game, but nothing has been made of it since so we’ll assume it’s all systems go. Sanchez exhibited a clear preference for Celek this week.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Seattle Seahawks

I mentioned coming into the week that things looked good for Lynch the rest of the way, with the assumption that he’d take on a bigger/more typical role in the offense. Obviously, Lynch’s output went beyond my wildest expectations but the point remains that this team looks better as a whole when they are doing what they do best. You know all about his 21-144, 1/1/23 line with four TDs by now so I won’t dwell on it… but, my favorite stats might be the 94 yards after contact and 11 missed (broken) tackles according to Pro Football Focus. Lynch simply willed his way through tacklers as he has done for most of his career. Robert Turbin and Christine Michael each played complementary roles but at 14 and eight snaps respectively, I wouldn’t get over excited about the team’s record breaking rushing day. Fighting for their playoff lives they’ll rely on Marshawn the rest of the way.

With the run game as the focus (and with the weather having an affect) the team didn’t pass the ball a whole lot. Doug Baldwin led the team in their well distributed targets again but with five for him, four for Jermaine Kearse and two apiece for Paul Richardson and Ricardo Lockette there wasn’t much to get excited about. When the team gets away from home they tend to throw more, but given Russell Wilson’s increased use and production as a rusher of late, I’m not certain there will be enough volume to trust anyone weekly. Baldwin remains the clear first option, but, if he wasn’t someone you were interested in using during their run in 2013 he shouldn’t be used in 2014 either as the team seems to have gotten back to their identity.

Touches and Targets Week 10: New Orleans Saints

Mark Ingram netted 30 touches and 100 yards for the second straight week, with 27 carries and three receptions against San Francisco. His role is so significant because of injuries to Khiry Robinson and Pierre Thomas, who will both eventually return, but Ingram has been a menace all season and while New Orleans prefers to rotate backs he has done enough to earn a 20 touch workload on a routine basis. Travaris Cadet, meanwhile, is simply not viewed as a rusher. With both Robinson and Thomas out of the lineup, Cadet has notched just five carries to Ingram’s 81. There is no timetable for the return of either back, but when Pierre Thomas comes back I’d expect Cadet to lose all utility, given that his only role is in the passing game at this point (4/3/18).

Jimmy Graham reached double digit targets for the first time since his injury, and made good on the 12 looks with 10 receptions, 76 yards and two scores. Those numbers don’t acknowledge another endzone target he received on which he was flagged for OPI while reeling in a 50 yard Hail Mary score. Elsewhere, Brandin Cooks was the next most targeted pass catcher with seven and five receptions including a TD caught in stride in the endzone (90 yards receiving on the day). Kenny Stills’ six looks topped Marques Colston’s four, but neither WR did anything fantasy relevant.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Detroit Lions

Reggie Bush returned to the lineup after the bye, but saw limited engagement in his first game back. Outsnapped 46-20 by Joique Bell, Bush split the remaining touches with Theo Riddick (who was on the field for just eight plays and gained five yards on five touches, but scored the game winning TD for Detroit), while Bell picked up 12 touches and 81 total yards. Riddick appears set for that handful of touches on a weekly basis, and this game confirmed that they’ll come at Bush’s expense, severely capping his value.

Anyone who enjoyed the Golden Tate reign of terror(izing defenses) during Calvin Johnson’s absence will be pleased to note that he drew 13 targets in Johnson’s return. Really, the pass game was the Tate and Johnson show with the two seeing 13 and 15 looks respectively and each topping 100 yards receiving while other receivers saw a max of two targets. When the TEs return healthy, those numbers may come down a bit but each should still see plenty of work. Johnson played 85.5% of the snaps in his return and showed no ill effects en route to a 15/7/113/TD line.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Dallas Cowboys

DeMarco Murray wasn’t needed much late, but still found 25 touches against the Jags (19-100, 6/6/31) getting back into the 100 yard rushing game column after a week’s absence. Joseph Randle played eight snaps helping to close out the game, carrying the ball seven times on them and producing an impressive TD run. Lance Dunbar didn’t get a carry (10 snaps, two receptions) so it would seem that despite a string of bad press Randle remains Murray’s primary handcuff.

Dez Bryant made a joke of would-be tacklers this weekend, running around and through Jacksonville’s secondary (which had been playing much better football) en route to an 8/6/158/2 line. Exactly half of his yards came after the catch, lifting Tony Romo’s stat line on a day where his back may have limited his ability to throw deep. Terrance Williams saw just two targets and couldn’t reel one in. He remains a boom/bust WR3, with just 48 targets through Dallas’ 10 games. Jason Witten, on the other hand, is trending up in that department. His 7/5/33 line isn’t exciting, but he did find the endzone and has now seen at least seven looks in three straight games.

Touches and Targets Week 10: San Francisco 49ers

Frank Gore spent some time after Week 9 talking about how his team had to ‘get back to what it did best’ to win. Which meant give me the ball. So… they did just that (which, I always find to be kind of a funny response, do the inmates run the asylum in SF?), bestowing 15 first half carries upon Gore. Then, they got away from the run in the second half and coughed up a lead to New Orleans. Still, after making his statement Gore finished with 23 carries and a reception, finding the endzone on 83 total yards. The 23 carries and 73% of snaps were both the second highest totals on the season for the veteran. They came at the expense of Carlos Hyde who had an awesome day running the ball, but played just 13 snaps and had his lone regulation time carry go for a TD. He finished with four for 36 yards.

When looking at the box score, Anquan Boldin helped his QB plenty as part of a six catch, 95 yard day that featured the team’s lone passing score. However, he was targeted 14 times and left yards on the field with four drops, including one on a key third down while catching fewer than 50% of his targets. Michael Crabtree was guilty of the same, going 8/3/62 but setting up the game tying field goal. The eight targets for Crabtree bring his season total to 64 so he is seeing plenty of work, but the 62 yards are his most since Week 3, making him hard to trust as a WR2/3 in an offense that has had trouble moving the ball through the air. Vernon Davis (4/1/9) should not be started any more.

Touches and Targets Week 10:Atlanta Falcons

With 18 carries heading into the bye and 16 coming out of it, Steven Jackson’s 34 totes over the last two games are easily the most he’s had over a two game stretch all season. He played on 48.5% of Atlanta’s offensive snaps, which is right around his standard pitch count, but was used often when on the field (adding two receptions). Behind him, three other backs and a receiver carried the ball but Jackson was easily the most productive of the bunch and seems to be becoming a good bet for 15-18 combined opportunities every game. There are worse options for your RB2.

Atlanta’s offensive line still graded out negatively in pass protection, but Matt Ryan was sacked just once and threw 32.4% of his passes while under pressure (down slightly from an average of 37% on the season). The extra time in the pocket may have been a factor in his finding the opportunity to put 11 passes in the direction of Julio Jones who responded with eight catches and 119 yards including two 20+ yard receptions. Jones’ production has never been a question of ability, but of opportunity and investors in the Atlanta passing game will hope that their better-but-still-bad pass pro continues. Of course, the overall production could simply have been a matter of facing the Bucs as well, with two of the team’s three wins on the season coming against Lovie Smith’s brood. Roddy White scored a short TD on a crossing route and finished 6/6/72 despite what looked at the time like a serious elbow injury mid way through the game. Harry Douglas was targeted twice while Devin Hester had four looks, making a brutal drop and one reception.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Charles Sims led the Bucs in carries in his first game action, and finished tied with Bobby Rainey with 10 combined touches. He put the ball on the ground on a run up the middle, though, and his 40 total yards weren’t all that enticing. Rainey was the clear preference on passing downs, running pass routes on 29 of his 44 snaps and pass blocking for seven more. Mike James had four carries, but played just five snaps, so he didn’t really factor in. Moving forward, Doug Martin will return eventually, but Sims would be my best guess for early down work. He didn’t do anything, outside of the fumble, to suggest he wouldn’t be useful in assessment mode the rest of the way, anyhow. Still, while Sims was a prolific collegiate pass catcher it has been clear all season that Rainey is the preferred passing down back and his five targets this week back that up. With the one win Bucs destined to spend a lot of second halves trailing, there is reason to believe he’ll be the most useful RB the rest of the way here… if you have to use any member of a committee on a team that is just playing out the string.

It seems like every week I am asked a start/sit question with Vincent Jackson and unfailingly, I stick with Jackson because… volume. That happened this week and Jackson delivered double digit targets yet again, catching a solid eight of 13 balls (including a few degree of difficulty grabs) and posting 75 yards. That feels like his staple though… 10+ looks, 5+ catches, and 7-9 fantasy points. Not a huge upside play there, but, based on volume he’ll rarely bury you. His rookie teammate Mike Evans remains the more dynamic player on a roster that, again, will be passing plenty in the second half. This week, Evans owned a healthy nine targets and made seven receptions for 125 yards with a score. That gives him 20 looks, 14 catches, 249 yards and three TDs over the last two weeks and a minimum of seven fake points in every game since Week 3. He may be both the floor and the upside play in this passing game.

Touches and Targets Week 10: St. Louis Rams

Tre Mason was the show in St. Louis’ backfield this week, and while he found it tough sledding against Arizona’s stout run defense, he easily won the battle for touches. Mason led the team in carries (14-48), pass targets (six) and receptions (four). It took a while for the team to get him involved, but I’d say he was very much so this week and should remain so moving forward. In an offense that does a lot of passing underneath, there are always going to be receiving yards to supplement the rushing #s as long as Mason checks in on most of the snaps (he played 61% this week). Zac Stacy was kept out of the game, while Benny Cunningham scored a rushing touchdown on four carries and added two receptions on four targets.

As mentioned, Mason’s six looks led all pass catchers for St. Louis, meaning that there were a lot of balls spread around this offense. Jared Cook made a long TD grab and posted a 3/2/100 line but that clearly isn’t projectable on a regular basis with three targets. Kenny Britt led receivers with five looks, (one for Bailey, four for givens, three and a carry for Tavon Austin) and is the only player worth thinking about here. Still, with those three and a myriad of other names drawing targets every week he’s best left reserved as well.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Arizona Cardinals

On a day where he could get nothing going on the ground, Andre Ellington was still the only Cardinals back involved. Marion Grice had a carry and a target, mind you, but that paled next to Ellington’s 18 carries and five receptions/targets. The production was insignificant (42 yards on 23 touches) but his work around the goal line saved Ellington’s fantasy day. After much debate about how often he’d be used coming into the season, Ellington has one of the highest shares of his backfield’s workload in the league.

This week’s receiving data goes out the window in Arizona with the Carson Palmer news. It should be noted, though, that John Brown has taken on an increased role in recent weeks at Michael Floyd’s expense, and that Drew Stanton went over the top to Brown immediately upon entering the game. The targets were distributed 9/7/5 between Larry Fitzgerald, Floyd, and Brown this week but again, that isn’t explicitly relevant any longer. Earlier this year, during Stanton’s three game stint, they were split 22/16/21. A fairly even distribution and one that produced just one game with over 60 yards receiving (it was 114 from Floyd, and Brown had a two TD outing thrown in the mix), but, I think you’re likely to see something similar from Stanton this time around: a fairly even distribution, leading to far more floor games than ceiling and unpredictability in terms of who will be the most useful fantasy receiver in any given week.

Touches and Targets Week 10: New York Giants

Both Peyton Hillis and Michael Cox went down to injury this week, leaving Andre Williams as the best of burden against the Seahawks. He responded with a pretty Williams-like line, going 13-33 (and adding 4/2/5 through the air) while crossing the chalk. Interestingly, with Rashad Jennings likely to return this week, Williams’ fantasy value should remain comparable. He hasn’t ran well in any of his games as the starter, but he has a nose for the endzone. Look for him to continue to get chances to convert in short yardage, but for things to shift heavily back in favour of Jennings overall.  Outside of the short week against Washington, Jennings had 20+ touches in every game he started and finished this year with Williams operating strictly in a back up role, where he was more effective.

If you were doubting whether or not Odell Beckham Jr. had surpassed Rueben Randle as the WR to own in New York, you need wonder no more. Beckham absolutely owned Richard Sherman this week, and while it should be noted that he was limited to a two reception, 17 yard second half his overall output was impressive. The Seahawks liked what they saw. Four of his seven catches came against Sherman (on six of nine targets) as part of a 108 yard day (with 11 rushing yards chipped in). Randle drew the same number of targets, but contributed just 39 yards on five receptions. The two also matched usage in Week 9 with 11 targets apiece, running the combined two week total to 20 targets and 15 catches, 264 yards receiving for Beckham with nine catches and 88 yards for Randle. The offense should look better with Jennings back in the lineup and Randle holds some degree of WR3 usability given that workload but Beckham Jr. is the only must start. Preston Parker had a great day (7/7/79/TD) but he should still be viewed as the third option.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Chicago Bears

From a fantasy perspective, it wasn’t all bad news for the Bears. The team still found 20 touches or Matt Forte in a game they gave up six first half touchdowns… so, if the meltdown continues you can still count on him. At receiver, there was lots of work for Alshon Jeffery (12/6/63) and Brandon Marshall as well (10/8/112/TD). Marshall deserves a degree of credit for taking on tacklers and playing hard in the second half despite the lopsided score. The Bears have been awful, no doubt, but they are a potent offense that drives the ball through its three starts (Martellus Bennett too… 6/2/45) so the fantasy outlook doesn’t change a lot here. Don’t overreact to the real world abomination.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Green Bay Packers

The blowout victory skews the playing time numbers a bit, but it should be noted that Eddiy Lacy saw 19 touches (to just five for James Starks, though again… DuJuan Harris did plenty of mop up work) a week after dominating touches 22-2. The two had split the work fairly evenly coming into this game, but, we may be seeing a transition to Lacy as the true three down back that many thought he would be coming into the season. Before things were totally out of hand, Lacy had nine carries for 36 yards in the first half, and had added all five of his targets, making three receptions. He has had 14 balls thrown his way the past two games matching his total from the first seven, seemingly marking a change in philosophy around his usage.

Jordy Nelson long touchdowns, Randall Cobb joins the fun, blah blah blah. Everyone was in the mix this week, and while they won’t all be cakewalks the script truly was more of the same for Green Bay. Nelson went 6/6/152/2 and was running wide open all day, Nelson matched his six targets and caught four balls while two TEs scored on Chicago’s league worst TE defense this week. Green Bay has another attractive WR matchup against the Eagles in Week 11.

Touches and Targets Week 10: Carolina Panthers

In sticking to the narrative fashion, DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart saw just enough work to sap each other’s total yardage value but not enough to truly go off. With Carolina’s first touchdown, Stewart’s final fantasy line was just fine but they split the snaps fairly evenly (38-31 in favor of Stewart) and saw 16/15 touches after a near-even split in Week 9 as well. DeAngelo Williams drew the start, though if pressed to start one it is probably Stewart.

Kelvin Benjamin continues to be the only receiver of note, and while his two scores helped deliver an epic garbage day line his seven targets remain the most appealing story for me. Benjamin was responsible for an early interception, stopping on a route, had a drop on another pass and altogether played a poor game… and yet, he produced in the end because he kept getting passes. With another seven looks he now has 82 looks on the season which is just a handful shy of double the next leading receivers (43, Jerricho Cotchery). For what its worth, Cotchery, along with Jason Avant, now seem to be behind Brenten Bersin (3/2/24) on the pecking order.

The post NFL Touches and Targets Week 10: NFC Edition appeared first on Fantasy Sports Locker Room.


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