With another week’s worth of data available for review the NFL continues to be an interesting place. Week 9 gave us many noteworthy items including the target distribution in Philadelphia with Mark Sanchez under Center, some items of interest in Denver’s backfield (and other time share situations around the league) and more… with that, onto the Touches and Targets Week 10 review.
Remember: we’re using ProFootballFocus’ ‘thrown at’ data which takes a more reasonable assessment of balls thrown in a receiver’s direction, so, you may notice some slight discrepancy from box scores.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Pittsburgh Steelers
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Martavis Bryant continues to shine for the Steelers, but how did their offense spread the ball on the road? (Photo: Kathy Willens/Associated Press).
In a tough matchup against New York’s run defense, with the Steelers trailing most of the day Le’Veon Bell carried just 11 times for 36 yards. As he has kindly done for owners most of the season, though, he supplemented nicely with eight receptions on 10 targets. The yards (33 through the air) weren’t there, but, it was a particularly helpful PPR down game. Behind him, a week after I used this space to pronounce LeGarrette Blount as one of the more FLEX relevant backups based on his workload, he played six snaps and carried five times for zero yards, thanks to an eight yard loss that inexplicably occurred on a goal line carry.
Antonio Brown put the ball on the ground twice, once as a returner and once as a receiver but still caught eight of his nine targets for 74 yards with the type of floor performance that shows just how valuable he is to fantasy owners. You know what you’re getting with Brown, though. The story of interest remains behind him. Martavis Bryant started ahead of Markus Wheaton this week, but they continued to play an incredibly even number of snaps (39-40) and drew comparable targets (8-7). This week, Wheaton did his damage from outside the 20s (actually, from his own 20) lifting owners who road his hot streak with a late 80 yard score for a total 8/4/143 line. We saw just how significant Pittsburgh’s struggles on the road were this week, where Big Ben has thrown four touchdowns all year (vs. 12 in a two game home stretch), and we knew that the massive run of production would have to end, so, Bryant is very useful at this stage in the season but his 6 TDs in four games will not continue. Look at him as a situational WR3 with (admittedly huge) upside. …and, just because its fun: Darrius Heyward-Bey had one target, which he DHB’d dropped.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Cleveland Browns
A week after Terrance West was the best back on the field for Cleveland, we were told that he had earned more touches but no one was explicitly sure how that would play out on the field. On Thursday Night, West drew the start and dominated the workload, though all backs saw the field. West played 46.8% of the snaps for Cleveland with Ben Tate checking in at 32.5% and Isaiah Crowell netting 20.8% of 77 offensive snaps. Each of them scored a rushing touchdown. As far as the touches, though, West dominated. He finished with 26 carries for 94 yards, while Tate had 10-34 and Crowell went 12-41. Tate was the only back targeted (2/2/27). Certainly, West’s performance, including some hard running to help the team finish it out did nothing to change his status as the go to back. I’d expect the pecking order to work out similarly moving forward, and with a modest team rushing performance (everyone remained under 4.0 YPC) you might be able to believe in this run game again, after watching them struggle in the wake of Alex Mack’s injury. A last note: with the game in question, the first half carries looked like this – West had 9, Crowell 8 and Tate 4 but I still think the veteran is the second back in the mix.
In the passing game, with Andrew Hawkins a late inactive and Jordan Cameron missing a second consecutive contest the ball was spread around to other targets. Gary Barnidge saw four targets compared to just one for Jim Dray at TE, but hopefully you aren’t in a situation where that is relevant to you. Otherwise, it was fairly even with Miles Austin, Taylor Gabriel and Travis Benjamin each seeing five targets. Josh Gordon is due back after the team’s next game, and while they are on record that they won’t force the ball in his direction, all of the above (save for perhaps Hawkins) are likely to be irrelevant by Week 12/13.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Cincinnati Bengals
With Giovani Bernard sidelined another week, Jeremy Hill was the back of record for Cincinnati. Still, a fumble cost him pretty much the entire fourth quarter and left him with just 13 touches in a game where his QB could get absolutely nothing going. When Hill ran, he ran well, producing a 12-55 line. Heading into the week, there was some speculation (my own | a more legitimate source) that Hill’s touches would draw even with Gio’s upon the sophomore’s return to the lineup and I would still expect that to be the case. Despite the fumble, Hill was certainly not what was wrong with the Cincinnati offense on Thursday Night and he has shown that he is the more effective inside runner. I actually don’t think a few less touches for Bernard with Hill doing the inside, wear down the defense work, would be a negative to his fantasy value.
The passing game did nothing, and you know that. The good news for AJ Green and Mohamed Sanu investors is that they both still saw plenty of looks, with nine and seven targets respectively. Green showed no ill effects from his toe injury, but he did clearly suffer from Dalton’s lack of accuracy. All told, he completed 10 passes… five to Green and Sanu and an additional three to Jermaine Gresham. At least you know where the ball is going in this offense. With Tyler Eifert eyeing a return, and Giovani Bernard an assist in the passing game, things may stabilize sooner than later.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Tennessee Titans
For anyone rolling with Bishop Sankey this week, the day couldn’t have been more frustrating. Sankey was heavily involved on the team’s first two possessions and (virtually) single-handedly got them into scoring territory. On the first attempt, Shonn Greene was given the ball after Sankey got them to the one, promptly fumbling. On the next, Zach Mettenberger through a pass to Leon Washington for Tennessee’s only score as part of his three touch day. Then, the team got away from the run in the second half (where Sankey had just five of his 16 carries). He ran effectively again, though his final 3.4 YPC number could have been more impressive. Greene didn’t carry the ball again after his fumble. This backfield belongs to Sankey, it’s just that the team won’t run the ball much and apparently, Ken Whisenhunt hates fantasy football.
In Zach Mettenberger’s first start, Justin Hunter was targeted 10 times to lead the team. It seemed that the rookie QB had made a clear statement about his favorite target. This week, Hunter played all but two of Tennessee’s snaps against a Ravens D that was missing its top corner and Hunter was targeted twice. How’s that for consistency? Kendall Wright led the team this week, with seven looks and four receptions and on the note of consistency has finished with 53 (wahoo…) receiving yards in each of his last two games.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Baltimore Ravens
If you’re in a situation where you have to worry about the backup running back situation in Baltimore, well, I’m sorry… better luck next year. Clearly, it has been a disappointing season but the confusion with who is next in line after Justin Forsett must be frustrating. After one snap ad one carry a week ago, Bernard Pierce played ahead of Lorenzo Taliaferro (who’d had a healthy 19 touches over the last two weeks and had just three carries on three offensive snaps in Week 10) and picked up 31 yards on eight carries. Either way though, the backup role is irrelevant with Justin Forsett taking the lead job and running with it. This week, he blasted the Titans run D to the rune of a 20 carry, 112 yard, two TD performance and is squarely in the conversation for fantasy free agent find of the year.
I’ll admit that I can’t figure out the situation at receiver, either. After two weeks, I pegged Steve Smith Sr. as the clear X receiver in Gary Kubiak’s offense and indicated that, per the OC’s history, that’s where all the targets were going to go. For a while, I was a genius, but the team has gotten Torrey Smith involved in recent weeks with outstanding results. Since Week 5, the elder Smith continues to lead the team in targets but the distribution has been much more even (42-35) and Torrey has done all the scoring. This week, he received one more (8-7) pass attempt from Joe Flacco and produced 75 yards and a TD on five catches while the vet managed just three and 17. With seven targets this week and consistent looks, Smith Sr. is still worth a weekly WR3 start but his production has fallen off of late (topping 50 yards just once in the last month and producing an endzone goose egg during that span). Owen Daniels was targeted four times.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Kansas City Chiefs
With an offense that cannot score through the air, it’s almost amazing that Jamaal Charles (15-98, against a tough Buffalo front) and Knile Davis combined for just 19 carries… but that they did. This isn’t actionable information at all, as Charles is delivering on his RB1 draft day cost (though, not on a pick 1/2 price tag) but it is noteworthy. It seems that the team is making a concerted effort to limit his workload, giving him just 113 carries through eight games, down considerably from last year’s 259 carry pace. He’s topped 20 in a game just twice.
Kansas City’s wide receivers continue to be comically without a TD this season. Alex Smith threw none this week, and is averaging just 1.2 per game so it isn’t like there are a lot to go around, but the shutout streak continues. With that said, owners should have room for Dwayne Bowe’s recent production. Depending on what you’re looking for from the WR3 position (i.e. floor vs. upside) Bowe has offered fantasy utility of late. The team really doesn’t have another wideout worth mentioning (A.J. Jenkins deserves parenthetical reference only, playing 66% of the team’s snaps this week but seeing just three targets and making one catch), so Bowe gets plenty of volume. He was targeted 12 times this week and made eight catches for 93 yards. Since the team’s Week 6 bye, he has been targeted 35 times, making 25 receptions, with five catches or more in each game. The TE’s were held out of the equation this week, with just two targets for Travis Kelce and one for Anthony Fasano.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Buffalo Bills
Fred Jackson’s return this week threw a real wrench into Buffalo’s backfield. All parties were productive, with Jackson, Bryce Brown (who lost a fumble) and Anthony I won’t call a grown man Boobie Dixon contributing 204 total yards but each taking enough work to limit one another. Brown was the least likely to have been used in fantasy lineups this week and with 100 yards rushing and receiving (six catches on seven targets for 65 yards) he was the most productive of the trio. Presumably, Jackson will be healthy enough to shoulder more of the workload next week which should impact Dixon (nine carries, 62 yards) more than Brown who may have done enough to find regular change of pace work when the situation stabilizes.
Sammy Watkins, like Jackson, was uncertain coming into the game with a groin injury but managed to play 70 of 75 offensive snaps for Buffalo. The production wasn’t there, though. Kyle Orton threw 10 balls in his direction but the tandem produced just four catches and 27 yards on those attempts. Robert Woods (8/6/52) and Chris Hogan (7/5/64, TD) were more productive. This was Hogan’s second score and third game with more than 50 yards, but with Watkins presumably good to go next week he doesn’t warrant much attention – though, the quick turnaround to Thursday’s game leaves Watkins’ health uncertain (along with that of Fred Jackson, making all situations potential ones to avoid in Week 11).
Touches and Targets Week 10: Miami Dolphins
RB Lamar Miller’s shoulder injury appeared to have a bigger impact on his use than was anticipated, limiting him to just 11 snaps and five unproductive touches against a tough Lions’ run D. With him limited, Daniel Thomas (5-14) and Damien Williams (7-34, 3/3/27) split the remaining snaps. They’ll face a short turn around against the Bills, and it would seem likely that all backs are involved yet again – thus, capping one another’s value.
Mike Wallace found the endzone again this week after a recent absence from the scoring summary, and produced 51 yards on five catches (seven targets). Charles Clay and Jarvis Landry led in thse areas, with nine targets and seven catches respectively. Detroit forced Tannehill to operate mostly underneath (or was it the passer’s deep ball limitations?) and those seven catch days yielded 45 and 57 yards respectively. Still, Landry’s use is undeniable at this point. He played largely in three wide sets, being outsnapped by Brian Hartline 47-38, but the veteran received just one target. Landry is very much on the radar in PPR leagues.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Jacksonville Jaguars
In a game where the Jaguars trailed from the opening whistle, they still managed to find 17 touches for Denard Robinson who totaled 70 yards and produced his first career multi-TD game. This is perhaps the most encouraging sign for me regarding Robinson’s usability as an upside RB2 each week – Jacksonville is going to trail regularly, as we know, but even in a blowout they got him the ball. They did so in part by limiting Toby Gerhart to four carries (two yards) on nine snaps.
Allen Robinson led the team in targets this week, as is often the case, but suddenly finds himself shelved for the season with a foot injury sustained in practice. His nine targets from Week 10 and 74 overall will be redistributed throughout the team. Cecil Shorts III, meanwhile, reversed roles and became the YPR leader after posting a lot of PPR friendly games with little yardage and should see a few more looks come his way each week. Adding 89 after the catch helped him post a 7/5/119 line, but he isn’t a good bet to top 100 regularly even with a few more targets. Meanwhile, Allen Hurns was targeted just twice (one fewer than Marqise Lee who played 26 snaps to Hurns’ 34) after a much hyped two score game a week ago. I was ready to write Hurns off as a big play threat who would be hard to predict in a deep/relatively even receiving corps but with Robinson out, I think he should play a major role. Watch Marqise Lee, but if Hurns is getting regular looks/playing time in the wake of the injury, he should get WR3 consideration.
Touches and Targets Week 10: New York Jets
In a reminder that his use is entirely game flow dependent, Chris Johnson was given the start after a solid outing a week ago. New York found themselves with an early lead, though, and spent a lot of the second half running the ball to eat clock – more Chris Ivory’s forte (14-51) than CJ’s. Mix in six Percy Harvin carries and there wasn’t a lot of work for Johnson (17 of 61 snaps, seven carries and a reception). The 2-8 Jets will still trail plenty of games when they return from their Week 10 bye, so Johnson’s value isn’t entirely nil but he remains behind Ivory. With Michael Vick (eight carries) also involved, we saw 14 rushes by non-backs this week, though, so that kind of puts a cap on everyone’s utility.
Again, New York didn’t have to pass a whole lot so you saw muted production all around. Harvin drew an additional four targets (catching three) and while there wasn’t a lot of need for him in the second half (one target, two carries) the combined 10 opportunities shows that the team intends to keep him busy. Eric Decker also had four targets and three catches for 24 yards while TJ Graham scored deep on the only pass thrown his way. Jace Amaro’s 5/2/6/TD line will work in fantasy, but, would have left a big hole in your lineup if not for the short score.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Denver Broncos
The RB situation in Denver is obviously a hot topic, and I’ve broken it down in great detail already this week. The Colts notes: C.J. Anderson had a great game (13-90, 6/4/73/TD) and easily trumped Ronnie Hillman’s eight touches which was a result of both Hillman’s injury and his production. With that said, Anderson’s 44 snaps this week nearly equalled the 57 he had played all season coming into the game. It would be foolish to assume one game makes him an every down back, particularly with Montee Ball returning to the mix this week. For Week 11, we’re looking at a hot hand situation, with each party a good bet for 6-10 touches and the hot hand to reign supreme. Juwan Thompson (10 snaps) can be considered irrelevant when Ball comes back.
Demaryius Thomas had (almost) double the targets of any other pass catcher with 13 and topped 100 yards for the sixth straight week. He scored a TD in each of the first three games of that streak, but has not over the last three. Still, awfully hard to complain there. Emmanuel Sanders, meanwhile, did the scoring again with two TDs on five receptions and seven targets. Similarly, Julius Thomas saw seven passes thrown his way and caught six, while finding the endzone twice. The seven targets are his highest since Montee Ball got hurt, and should be viewed as no surprise given Hillman’s limitations as a pass blocker (noted in the above linked article). With CJ Anderson taking on a great role this week, Thomas was free to run routes (blocking on 31 of his 67 snaps this week) and resumed doing the damage he did earlier this season. Monitoring the RB situation heading into Week 11 is important not only for the carries, but as it pertains to Thomas’ potential role as well. While discussing snaps, it’s fun to note that Brock Osweiller checked in for 17, which was evidently fewer than he would have liked.
Touches and Targets Week 10: Oakland Raiders
In keeping with the trend, Oakland backs were afforded just 13 rushing opportunities against the Broncos and none fared very well. Darren McFadden still leads the committee though, and I wouldn’t let an expectedly rough outing sour me on his ROS FLEX utility. McFadden had seven carries (adding four catches on six targets) to MJD’s three, and Latavius Murray’s two.
In a game where Derek Carr spread the ball to 12 different intended receivers, Andre Holmes was targeted just once (despite playing 63.5% of the team’s snaps, second most in his position group) so it seems that his utility-by-virtue-of-volume is out the door. That said, he’s a good bet to see more work moving forward. Most of the targets this week were concentrated on James Jones who delivered the lowest eight catch yardage total that I can remember (12/8/20 yards). All around it was an awful day, though Mychal Rivera found the endzone to give him back to back games with TDs and his 8/6/64 line led the team. In an offense where the balls are spread to so many pass catchers, it’s tough to trust anyone but it seems that Rivera (27 targets over the last three weeks) is developing into a regular option for his rookie QB.
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